A year has passed since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan after the 1990s and even though this is the group’s second attempt at ruling a country, it has not yet been able to solve the challenges of state-building. In the past one year, as a former Parliamentarian, I feel that the group has failed to move towards a legitimate and modern government as required by the Afghan people. Instead, the challenges faced by the group have become more apparent over time. The challenges of the Taliban’s state formation can be examined in the following axes:
- Political crisis and crisis of legitimacy at national and international level: At the national level, the Taliban has not been able to bring Afghan personalities, parties, and ethnic groups to walk along with them, or in simpler terms, the group has failed at power-sharing at the domestic level. At the international level, no country is currently willing to recognize the Taliban government with its existing structure, goals, and plans.
- Economic crisis: With the aid from the international community cut-off and the freezing of Afghanistan’s national assets, poverty, unemployment, corruption, and migration of Afghan people, the Taliban have not been able to present an effective plan to manage the economic crisis to the Afghan public. Many small businessmen of Afghanistan have transferred their funds to other countries like Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, for better opportunities.
- Social crisis: The ethnic divide caused by the quest for supremacy and the exclusive domination of one ethnic group over other ethnic groups has deepened the social rift between the people and the Taliban. As the Taliban government is practically under the control of one ethnic group, other tribes and ethnic groups are on the sidelines and isolated.
- Security crisis: In addition to the political, economic and social crisis, the fourth crisis that may have an affect on shortening the life of the Taliban government is the security crisis. The Taliban are currently threatened by four serious security threats:
- The ongoing tension between the Kandahari faction and the Haqqani faction of the group has created a sort of a power tussle. Other Pashtun Taliban are unhappy with the monopoly of power by these two groups within the Pashtuns. Some Taliban fighters have turned to civilian life, while some have migrated.
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- The ongoing tension between the Kandahari faction and the Haqqani faction of the group has created a sort of a power tussle. Other Pashtun Taliban are unhappy with the monopoly of power by these two groups within the Pashtuns. Some Taliban fighters have turned to civilian life, while some have migrated.
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- The anti-Taliban armed opposition are in fact the same dispersed and trained forces of the armed forces of the republican period in the form of the National Resistance Front, the Liberation Front, and some other unknown fronts of Afghanistan, which are considered a real threat to the Taliban’s current supremacy.
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- Non-Pashtun Taliban commanders who are gradually separating from their ranks. Starting with their self-proclaimed Amir, such as Qari Salahuddin Ayubi, Makhdoom Alam, Zarif Mozafari from Uzbek Taliban commanders, Mawlawi Ghousuddin, and Mawlawi Abdul Qadir Hami from Tajik commanders- the intra-group wars between the Uzbek and Pashtun Taliban or the Pashtun and Tajik Taliban flare up and die down from time to time in different parts of the country. The last thing that called for a Taliban campaign was the separation of a Hazara commander of the Taliban, which led to the displacement of defenseless and poor people of Balkhab in northern Afghanistan.
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- The fourth security threat is the explosions attributed to the ISIS group in Khorasan.
Over the past one year, the Taliban has not been able to manage the existing challenges for their own benefit but have deepened the existing crises with their violent and suppressive behaviours. In addition, the wall of trust between the Taliban and neighbouring countries is slowly collapsing. The Chinese, as one of the main supporters of the Taliban group, strongly object to the presence of Uyghurs in the ranks of the Taliban. Therefore, reports indicate desperation and growing distance between the Chinese and the Taliban.
With political changes in Pakistan over the last three months and the changes that happened in the security leadership of this country with the removal of General Faiz Hamid as the head of ISI, we are witnessing a slight deviation in Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban. However, what has rattled most feathers for the Taliban is the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri at the guest house of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network, in Kabul. The presence of Al-Qaeda leadership in Kabul and the continued communication between the Taliban and this terrorist group is against the provisions of the Doha agreement between the Taliban and the United States. After the death of Al-Zawahiri, both the US and the Taliban have accused each other of violating the agreement. But what is certain is that the Taliban, contrary to their commitments to the Americans, have maintained their relationship with terrorist groups. Looking at the past one year reign of Taliban on Afghanistan, It is my firm belief that the rule of the Taliban is short-lived.
