Afghan Economy Expected to Grow at 2.5% in 2019, Inflation to Rise: ADB Outlook 2018

The Asian Development Bank has released its report on country-wise forecasts and economic indicators (Asian Development Outlook 2018), and it predicts the Afghan GDP to grow at 2.5% in 2019, and 2.2% in 2018.

However, as per ADB forecasts, the inflation in Afghanistan may rise too: 5% in 2019 from 3.5% in 2018. Experts attribute 150 basis points increase to rising oil prices, and depreciating Afghani against US Dollar.

The per capita growth in Afghanistan will remain the same at 1.1% for both 2018 and 2019.

The ADB Data also pointed that the average population growth rate of Afghanistan from 2002-2017 has been 1.9%. But poverty indicators are worrisome. Afghanistan tops the list of countries in which the share of population below national poverty line is high-at 39.1%. Unemployment rate stands at 8.8%.

ADB has till now provided assistance worth $5.4 billion in terms of 166 projects for Afghanistan.

This comes after Afghanistan was a top improver in the Doing Business Report of World Bank Group. Afghanistan was ranked at 167th position for 2019 which is a 16 position climb from 2018’s 183rd rank.

Ease of Doing Business Report is an annual ranking mechanism by World Bank in terms of grading countries as per their friendliness towards enterprise and business activities. It has 10 indicators: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protection of minority investor, paying taxes, trade across borders, enforcing contracts , and resolving insolvency.

Afghanistan’s score was 47.77/100 which is a 10 point jump from last time’s and the country did well in 5 whole indicators-starting a business, getting credit, protecting minority investor, paying taxes and resolving insolvency.

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