Mass Killing a Worry for Afghanistan in 2019, Projects a Forecast

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Afghanistan, and Egypt top the list of countries most likely to experience a new mass killing in 2018 or 2019, according to a new forecast released by the Early Warning Project.

The project is a partnership between the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and Dartmouth College.

While DRC tops the list, Afghanistan and Egypt are the second and third most at-risk countries for a new episode of mass killing.

According to the forecast, “Afghanistan is already experiencing an ongoing nonstate-led mass killing episode, perpetrated by the Taliban.
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This risk assessment relates to the chance of a new mass killing, not to the likelihood of Taliban attacks continuing or increasing.”

Risk factors for Afghanistan include lack of freedom of movement for people and governance characteristics that (anocracy) contribute to Afghanistan’s high ranking.

The forecast points out that in each of the top three at-risk countries, there are similar factors that account for the high risk: all have a “mix” of democratic and autocratic governance characteristics (i.
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e., an anocratic regime type), large population sizes, a history of mass killing, high infant mortality rates, and a lack freedom of domestic movement for men.

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